Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams Fancies Winning Pointer on Chasing Debut at Uttoxeter

National‑Hunt fans get an enticing Sunday treat when Uttoxeter stages a competitive summer‑jumps card, and the feature 3‑mile Novices’ Handicap Chase (1.25 p.m.) is the race that has lit up tipster Rhys Williams’ notebook. Our resident analyst believes the market has underestimated a horse who has already won between the flags and now tackles fences under Rules for the first time. Below, we break down the case for the selection, assess the opposition, study conditions on the day, and set out a staking strategy that balances value with prudence.

1️⃣ The Selection at a Glance

2️⃣ Why Rhys Williams Likes Kelya Wood

➤ 1. Proven Ability Over Fences

Although she is a novice under NH Rules, Kelya Wood arrives with a 1‑from‑1 record in Irish point‑to‑points, having scored by four lengths at Lisronagh on heavy ground in February 2023. She jumped slickly, travelled comfortably through the final circuit, and produced a decisive turn of foot when asked. That form has worked out: the runner‑up, Rolling Mist, won a maiden hurdle next time, and the third, Deelish Diva, placed in two mares’ novice chases for Henry de Bromhead. Williams often targets pointer‑winners stepping back over fences because the market frequently discounts their experience. betting.betfair.com

➤ 2. Hurdle Runs Were Quiet Preps

Dr Newland used a brace of mares’ novice hurdles in the spring as educational outings. At Hereford she was given an easy introduction before staying on for fifth, and at Bangor she shaped better than the bare result, travelling strongly until outpaced after two out. Both starts came over 2 m 3 f; the evidence of her point suggests three miles is her optimum. Her opening chase mark of 113 could look lenient once handicappers see her true ability.

➤ 3. The Race Conditions Suit

Uttoxeter’s left‑handed, undulating circuit places a premium on balance and jumping. Sunday’s forecast (good to soft, scattered showers) should produce a surface Kelya Wood relishes; each of her best efforts—including her point win—came on softish ground. Williams is keen to oppose the likely favourite Shanagh Bob, whose Grade 2 hurdle success came on a faster Cheltenham surface, and whose pedigree (by Blue Bresil) points to a preference for spring ground.

➤ 4. Pedigree & Stamina

By Getaway out of a Milan mare, Kelya Wood is bred for staying chases. Her dam is a half‑sister to Gunnery Sergeant (rated 139 over fences), while her sire Getaway has produced staying stars such as Verdict de Motte and Getabird. With a guaranteed stamina base, Uttoxeter’s stiff final furlong is a plus.

➤ 5. Trainer/Jockey Combo

Dr Richard Newland’s yard maintains a 24 % strike‑rate with novice chasers over the past two seasons, and rider Charlie Hammond’s 3 lb claim has been used to positive effect on similar types. Their workflow suits the “run lightly, win when ready” template Williams looks for.

3️⃣ The Opposition: Who to Fear?

The market’s focus on Shanagh Bob and Crazierthandaisy leaves room for an 8/1 price on Kelya Wood, which Williams deems at least two points too big.

4️⃣ Course, Distance & Ground Analysis

Uttoxeter’s chase course measures 1 m 2½ f, featuring eleven fences per circuit and a short run‑in of 200 yards. Front‑runners can dominate on good ground, but “good to soft” tilts the balance towards handy types who can sit third‑to‑fifth and conserve energy for the climb over Clump Hill.

• Average winning Racing Post Rating (RPR) for this race type: 124

• Seasonal pace bias: 41 % leaders/pressers, 59 % hold‑up

• Fence difficulty index: 5.8/10 (moderate)

• Last‑five winners by weight carried: 11‑12, 11‑7, 10‑13, 11‑0, 10‑6

Kelya Wood carries a handy 11‑1 after Hammond’s claim, sits in the sweet spot for weight trends, and can tuck in behind early pace. Expect her to move up leaving the back straight and challenge from fence four‑out.

5️⃣ Staking & Money‑Management Plan

Williams’ preferred staking:

• 1 pt win @ 8/1 (Betfair Sportsbook or 9.0 BSP)

• 1 pt place @ 6/4 (top‑3 market)

For more cautious bankrolls, consider a 0.5 pt each‑way at 8/1 (⅕ odds, 3 places). Price sensitivity matters; avoid backing below 6/1 on the win side, as the value edge erodes.

6️⃣ Wider Sunday Notebook

While Kelya Wood is Williams’ headline play, he notes two small‑stakes “watching briefs”:

1. 2.35 Uttoxeter – Class 4 Handicap Hurdle (2 m 4 f)

   • Boulevard Blond (12/1) attempts a wind‑op/first‑time tongue‑tie combo. Keep an eye for late support.

2. 4.05 Uttoxeter – Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (2 m 5 f)

   • Lord Accord drops from Class 2 company; any easing to soft pushes him into the mix.

Neither make the official bet sheet, but runners who drift to double‑figure odds may tempt an in‑running approach.

7️⃣ The Bigger Picture: Why Pointers Matter

One constant in Rhys Williams’ tipping record is recruiting winners directly from the pointing fields. Here’s why:

• Education: Irish points replicate hurdle/chase race rhythms more than bumper races do.

• Jump fluency: Horses have faced real fences, increasing confidence.

• Stamina profile: Most points run over three miles; ideal for UK staying chases.

• Market inefficiency: Bookmakers often underrate point form versus “Rules” form.

On softish ground at a galloping track, point experience pays dividends.

8️⃣ Race‑Day Checklist

9️⃣ Verdict

Kelya Wood brings the right blend of point‑to‑point winning form, stamina, ground preference, and lenient mark to mount a serious challenge on her chasing debut. While Shanagh Bob is respected, his lofty rating leaves minimal upside at cramped odds. At 8/1, Williams’ pick represents outstanding value in a field where many rivals still have questions to answer.

FAQs

Q1: What’s the difference between a “rules debut” and a “chasing debut”?
A rules debut is a horse’s first run under the official Racing Calendar (hurdles, bumpers, chases). A chasing debut is a horse’s first start over fences under Rules; it may already have run in bumpers or hurdles.

Q2: Why does ground condition matter so much at Uttoxeter?
Uttoxeter’s undulating back straight and stiff finish exaggerate energy expenditure on soft ground. Horses proven on testing surfaces maintain rhythm where speed‑based rivals tire.

Q3: How do I follow late price movements?
Use the Betfair Exchange or Oddschecker “grid” to track live odds. Significant drifts or gambles in the hour before off‑time often flag yard confidence or adverse whispers (e.g., ground concerns).

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